Tel Aviv University professor and prominent Middle East historian Asher Susser spoke about the rise of Islamic radicalism, the shifting balance of power to Iran in the Middle East, and the potential implications of Iranian expansionism for Israel.

“The Middle East is no longer the Arab world it once was."

UCLA Younes and Soraya Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, December 7, 2016 - On Monday, prominent Middle East historian Asher Susser described the rise of non-Arab states in the modern era, particularly Iran, key events in the 20th and 21st Centuries that led to the country’s current expansion in the region, and what that might mean for Israel today.

“The Middle East is no longer the Arab world it once was,” Susser began.

The Collapse of Pan-Arabism and the Link to Israel

The Tel Aviv University professor contrasted the current situation in the Middle East with a description of the region in the 20th century. The mid-20th century saw the emergence and spread of pan-Arabism and the leadership of Arab nationalist and Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser.

“In the 1950s and 1960s, there was a major focus on Egypt, Nasser, pan-Arabism, Syria and Iraq,” Susser explained. “Now it’s a story about Iran, Turkey, and to a lesser-degree, Israel.”

Susser argues that the decline of the Arab states and the ideals of pan-Arabism can be traced back in part to 1967. Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War “shattered” the commitment to an Arab identity based on language and ethnicity. The failure of pan-Arabism opened the door for a resurgence of religion as the primary source of identity, Susser noted.

“In the Middle East, secular nationalists underestimated the resilience of tradition,” Susser said. “And in the region, there has never been a real separation of religion and state.”

The Rise of Radical Islam and its Strategic Effects

The void left by the unifying force of pan-Arabism was filled by radical Islam, which Susser described as “polarizing and divisive.” This new regional movement began pitting states against each other based on religious identities and weakened Sunni Arab states.

Radical Islam took different forms in the Shiite and Sunni worlds and this has given Shiite Iran strategic advantages. While radical Sunni traditions emphasize the need for a just society ruled by Islamic law (Sharia), there is no central authority, creating a situation in which different factions compete over their own visions of a just society. Modern radical Shiite traditions, on the other hand, prioritize the rule of a jurisprudent and the personality of a ruler.

“This radical Islamic response is divisive in the Sunni camp and unifying in the Shiite camp, which gives Iran a strategic advantage,” Susser added.

The weakness of the Arab states caused by the decline in pan-Arabism after the Six-Day War, and the subsequent emergence of divisive Sunni radicalism, allowed Iran to take its place as a regional power.

“The rise of Iranian influence is a consequence of a crisis of the Arab states,” Susser explained.

Iran as a Regional Power

These factors compounded with more recent events have solidified Iran’s strong position in the region. Susser noted that the revolutions, refugee crises and demographic challenges that have touched many Arab countries have left these states further weakened and created a vacuum that Iran, with its hegemonic aspirations, was more than willing to fill.

Susser also mentioned the 2003 decision by the United States to invade Iraq, which removed the “remaining Sunni gatekeeper of the Arab East, opening much of the Middle East to Iranian influence,” as a major contributing factor to Iran’s current strength.

While Iran has expanded its presence - or at least influence - in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and beyond, the other, emerging non-Arab country in the region, Turkey, has shown little willingness to challenge the Islamic Republic. Turkey faces its own challenges linked to Kurdish separatist movements.

Despite Iran’s successes, the country faces many of its own challenges, explained Susser, including a small GDP, economic problems and a defense budget that is smaller than Israel’s. It’s involvement in Syria is also costly, with estimates that the Islamic Republic spends $1 billion each month supporting Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

The Implications of Iran’s Rise for Israel

However, Iran’s presence in Syria could also pose a threat to Israel. And Iran is committed to this presence because it allows the Islamic Republic - through the Syrian President and their mutual ally, Hezbollah - to reach beyond its historical sphere of influence and strategic capabilities.

Iran’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean gives the country an ability to pressure Israel and it is investing heavily to maintain this advantage.

“If the US or Israel threaten Iran on the nuclear issue, Iran can unleash rockets on Israel from Lebanon,” Susser explained. “Iran must have Syria to keep its link to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

For most of its history, Israel has had to contend with hostile Arab neighbors. However, Arab state weakness has created a vastly new problem for Israel in the form of a powerful Iran. Susser concluded with a recommendation for Israel and its long-time ally, the United States, to deal with the challenge.

“Israel and the US need to come to a strategic understanding on how to address Iranian hegemonic design,” Susser concluded. “And they need to agree on how to react to Iranian aggression.”